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Decision intelligence

The decision that moves your world is already being made.

You just can't see it yet. We map the actors, decisions, and branches behind the headlines — and deliver a weekly brief with the evidence to prepare, not just react.

Currently covering export controls, AI labs, and energy. A sample brief. No sequence.

Live branch field

Export controls · sample snapshot

Sample
BIS entity-list expansion28%
momentum+6 ↑
Allied alignment22%
momentum+2 ↑
License enforcement18%
momentum-1 ↓
Status quo17%
momentum-4 ↓
Other / regime break15%
momentum+1 ↑
N_eff 4.912 sourcesupdated 2m ago
The gap

By the time it's a headline, the decision is already made.

Decisions are prepared in filings, meetings, procurement, drafts, and quiet conversations. You see the announcement. The market reacts. You react last.

The decision gap

Same event. Two vantage points.

Sample
We see the chain
Preparation
Filings, meetings, procurement
Draft
Rules, comments, legal review
Decision
Who decides, and what follows
Announcement
The same event, from the other side
You see the output
You see the announcement
The decision is already made. The press release is the last step.
The market reacts
Prices move on the headline. The people who understood it already positioned.
You react last
Your team reads, calls, and improvises. The window to prepare is gone.

The decision was prepared weeks earlier. You saw the announcement.

The reframe

Stop watching headlines. Watch the decision.

Every move has a chain: who decides, what they'll decide next, what follows, and under which conditions. The chain leaves traces. We map them.

01

Actors

Who can move the decision, who is exposed, who is watching.

02

Decisions

What is being decided, by whom, and on what timeline.

03

Branches

What must happen for each path, and what would change our mind.

04

Consequences

What it means for licenses, counterparties, portfolio, or position.

The brief

A weekly brief that tells you what's next — and what to do about it.

One domain. The decisions that matter. The branches that could change the outcome.

  • — What is likely next
  • — Who will decide
  • — What must happen for it to occur
  • — What it means for you

Weekly Decision Brief

Export controls · Week 44

Sample

BIS entity-list expansion

BIS / Commerce · 2–4 weeks

Medium
Coordinated vs unilateral

Allied alignment

Japan / Netherlands · 4–8 weeks

Medium
Follow or diverge

License enforcement

BIS / OPA · ongoing

Low–medium
Narrow vs broad
source · span · confidence · falsifierRead the evidence →
Who it's for

Built for the people who have to act before the news.

Compliance & legal

What does this mean for licenses and counterparties?

Prepare before the rule lands. Evidence you can show your GC.

Strategy & government affairs

Which decision becomes a position?

Track actors, arenas, and branches before they become public.

Investors

What does the market still miss?

Understand the decision behind the move, not just the headline.

How it works

The public record, mapped.

No magic. No black box. A structured read of what is already public — and a brief that tells you what it means.

01

Read the record

Public sources, filings, procurement, official registers, local press.

02

Map the decision

Actors, interests, arenas, decisions, branches, and conditions.

03

Deliver the brief

What is next, what it means, what to do, and how confident we are.

Why different

Faster news is still news. We give you the decision chain.

What happened
Old way

Fast headlines

DecisionGateway

Context and mechanism

Who decides next
Old way

Not covered

DecisionGateway

Actors, arenas, timing

What follows
Old way

Isolated takes

DecisionGateway

Decision chain and branches

Evidence & audit
Old way

Sources or none

DecisionGateway

Source, span, confidence, falsifier

We don't replace your analysts. We give them coverage and an audit trail.

Proof

Don't take our word for it. Take the evidence.

Every brief is backed by a replayable record: what we flagged, when, and why.

Lead time
16 days
Precision
0.78
Calibration
Brier 0.14
Federal Register2026-10-28span 142–198conf 0.72
Start here

Start with one domain. One decision. Four weeks.

No platform migration. No twelve-month contract. A brief, a watchlist, and a call.

Sample brief

See the format, the evidence, and the level of confidence.

  • — One domain
  • — Three live decisions
  • — Branches and conditions
  • — Source-backed evidence
Get a sample brief

One sample. No sequence.

Paid pilot

One domain, one decision. 4–6 weeks.

  • — One domain, one decision
  • — Weekly brief + watchlist
  • — Analyst call every week
  • — 4–6 weeks
Request a pilot

We scope one domain and one decision.

FAQ

Questions, answered.

No. News tells you what happened. We map the decision chain behind it: who decides, what they are likely to decide next, what follows, and under which conditions.

Be prepared, not surprised.

Get the weekly brief. One domain. The decisions that matter. The evidence behind them.