--- title: "Mortgage issuance fell sharply to ₽308.8 billion (-49.2% m/m and -36.2% y/y); there was a strong… — truecon — DecisionGateway" description: "statement by truecon, recorded 2026-11-06 — verbatim quote and source citation." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d10e-541e-7d3b-ae21-98efdb7b8ae5" meta: "og:description": "statement by truecon, recorded 2026-11-06 — verbatim quote and source citation." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "Mortgage issuance fell sharply to ₽308.8 billion (-49.2% m/m and -36.2% y/y); there was a strong… — truecon — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) statementSaid on 2026-11-06 # **Mortgage issuance fell sharply to ₽308.8 billion (-49.2% m/m and -36.2% y/y); there was a strong surge before the tightening of subsidized mortgage terms, but in October everything went dark.** A statement by [**truecon**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/actors/01a1d549-f39e-730f-9f95-78ab0f818ce5), said on 2026-11-06. Statements are as reported by the cited publishers — not verified by DecisionGateway. > *Выдачи ипотеки резко упали до ₽308.8 млрд (-49.2% м/м и 36.2% г/г) - перед ужесточением условий льготной ипотеки был сильный всплеск, но в октябре все "потухло".* trueconPublished 2026-11-06 [ Read source](https://t.me/truecon/5985) [**truecon dossier **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/actors/01a1d549-f39e-730f-9f95-78ab0f818ce5) ## **Related claims** [**According to Dom.RF estimates, subsidized mortgage issuance collapsed threefold to ₽117 billion.**Дом.РФ · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d10e-543a-7dd7-b8ba-1c7b3ef2b606) [**Preliminary Frank RG data on retail lending for October recorded a sharp drop in issuance to ₽1.03 trillion (-22.1% m/m and -2.8% y/y), a reversal after the surge in subsidized mortgages.**Frank RG · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d10e-53f5-7fa4-8727-3e2877e6e401) [**Market mortgage remained at decent levels of about ₽190 billion per month, gradually narrowing the gap between the secondary and primary markets, though drivers here are expectations of a rate cut, elevated inflation and relatively low prices (relative to the primary market).**truecon · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d10e-5469-7376-98c7-92d3911668f8) [**The average mortgage loan in September was 4.77 million rubles, up 10.7% from August.**MarketOverview · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1b6bd-2616-7417-a206-78ff23d89800) [**The mortgage rate is 8%, the maximum loan amount is 8 million rubles, the down payment must be at least 20% of the contract price, and the state will subsidize the rate for up to 15 years from the date of the loan agreement.**minfin · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1ce90-e2ef-7353-a902-824050b55717) [**Mortgage credit had its largest monthly expansion in a year in October, with the balance growing 3.3% in real terms to 9.6 trillion pesos.**axtronok · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1cde9-d9ba-7e50-b0a1-44f7ea8af979) ## **More claims by truecon** [**Inflation expectations declined slightly but remain high: 4.3% for one year and 3.4% for five years; overall, everything points to the Fed having to raise rates in December.**prediction](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f58c-7104-b2d0-4d8a582a59ed) [**The financial conditions index is at extremely comfortable levels, the financial stress index likewise, and the key rate can hardly be characterized as tight.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f545-78cf-934b-b7b220b1f44d) [**Hourly wage growth accelerated slightly to 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y; weekly jobless claims were only 189 thousand, and the number of Americans on benefits was about 1.7 million — lows since 2023.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f503-7b3f-89a7-d682f7c833f7) [**The number of open vacancies rose to 7.5 million, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed rose to 1.06.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f4cf-7cda-adff-6b49cd680964) [**The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 59.3% — all indicators improved by 0.1 percentage points over the month.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f4ab-7818-a96e-3418bbeeef2f) [All claims by truecon](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims?claimant_id=01a1d549-f39e-730f-9f95-78ab0f818ce5) [All claims](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 3,800+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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