--- title: "The average rate over the last 5 years was <2.5%, the real rate about -1.8%, which is far below… — truecon — DecisionGateway" description: "statement by truecon, recorded 2026-11-02 — verbatim quote and source citation." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d10f-75b9-7e14-b283-13a97a33bae0" meta: "og:description": "statement by truecon, recorded 2026-11-02 — verbatim quote and source citation." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "The average rate over the last 5 years was <2.5%, the real rate about -1.8%, which is far below… — truecon — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) statementSaid on 2026-11-02 # **The average rate over the last 5 years was <2.5%, the real rate about -1.8%, which is far below estimates of the neutral real rate (R\*), which in the eurozone are around 0-0.25% — in the dominant view policy remained extremely loose.** A statement by [**truecon**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/actors/01a1d549-f39e-730f-9f95-78ab0f818ce5), said on 2026-11-02. Statements are as reported by the cited publishers — not verified by DecisionGateway. > *Средняя ставка за последние 5 лет <2.5%, реальная ставка около -1.8%, что сильно ниже оценок нейтральной реальной ставки (R\*), которые в еврозоне находятся в районе 0-0.25% - в доминанте политика оставалась крайне мягкой.* trueconPublished 2026-11-02 [ Read source](https://t.me/truecon/5974) [**truecon dossier **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/actors/01a1d549-f39e-730f-9f95-78ab0f818ce5) ## **Discussion** ## **Related claims** [**Average inflation in the eurozone over the last 5 years was 4.3%, and since K. Lagarde's arrival 3.5%, which is significantly above the 2% target; at its peak annual inflation reached 10.6%.**truecon · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d10f-7590-7637-b116-cfdaabcfb00e) [**Ставка 12% на 5-6 месяцев — было 11,5%.**поддержка · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1c075-3c91-78fa-adbb-806c69371849) [**The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic kept its policy rate at 12%, matching EABR forecasts, amid slowing inflation and persistent external price risks.**ЕАБР · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d783-5626-7d0d-a0ed-bd131de912f0) [**The weighted average rate was 5.54%.**Weighted Average Rate (%) 5.54 · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1cc74-f44b-7c61-8960-61509db7650d) [**On the market portion of the debt the rate rose to 3.57%; long- and medium-term debt is still fairly cheap at 3.4-3.5% per annum versus market rates of 4.8-5.3%, and inertial growth here will continue for a long time since paper with rates averaging up to 2.5% per annum is being redeemed.**truecon · prediction](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d105-d524-7702-96c9-0d42c079a7c3) [**Inflation expectations over the 5-to-10-year range fell to +3.4% versus an estimate of +3.5% and a previous +3.5%.**analisisbankinter · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1cc23-a3d9-7636-98ae-496a019ca0b0) ## **More claims by truecon** [**Inflation expectations declined slightly but remain high: 4.3% for one year and 3.4% for five years; overall, everything points to the Fed having to raise rates in December.**prediction](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f58c-7104-b2d0-4d8a582a59ed) [**The financial conditions index is at extremely comfortable levels, the financial stress index likewise, and the key rate can hardly be characterized as tight.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f545-78cf-934b-b7b220b1f44d) [**Hourly wage growth accelerated slightly to 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y; weekly jobless claims were only 189 thousand, and the number of Americans on benefits was about 1.7 million — lows since 2023.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f503-7b3f-89a7-d682f7c833f7) [**The number of open vacancies rose to 7.5 million, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed rose to 1.06.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f4cf-7cda-adff-6b49cd680964) [**The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 59.3% — all indicators improved by 0.1 percentage points over the month.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d110-f4ab-7818-a96e-3418bbeeef2f) [All claims by truecon](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims?claimant_id=01a1d549-f39e-730f-9f95-78ab0f818ce5) [All claims](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 4,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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