--- title: "From a valuation and crowding trading perspective, long-end bond yields are already at historical… — 付裕 — DecisionGateway" description: "statement by 付裕, recorded recently — verbatim quote and source citation." canonical_url: "https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d246-d514-7bce-8301-6ca81bc021c3" meta: "og:description": "statement by 付裕, recorded recently — verbatim quote and source citation." "og:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" "og:image:alt": "White network of connected nodes crossed by a timeline on black" "og:image:height": "1024" "og:image:width": "1024" "og:title": "From a valuation and crowding trading perspective, long-end bond yields are already at historical… — 付裕 — DecisionGateway" "twitter:image": "https://dgw.tmarket.io/og.jpg" --- > Index of every page on this site: [llms.txt](https://dgw.tmarket.io/llms.txt) statement # **From a valuation and crowding trading perspective, long-end bond yields are already at historical lows and duration is crowded, meaning the risk-reward ratio has declined; once there is a negative disturbance, volatility will significantly amplify.** A statement by [**付裕**](https://dgw.tmarket.io/actors/01a1d246-d4f6-77aa-ad18-725019fb777e). Statements are as reported by the cited publishers — not verified by DecisionGateway. > *从估值与拥挤度交易角度看，长端债券收益率已经处于历史低位、久期拥挤，意味着赔率下降，一旦利空扰动，波动会显著放大。* financial\_expressPublished 2026-11-10 [ Read source](https://t.me/financial_express/3614692) [**付裕 dossier **](https://dgw.tmarket.io/actors/01a1d246-d4f6-77aa-ad18-725019fb777e) ## **Related claims** [**Overall, the long-term trend of the bond market is relatively strong, but the pace of phased increases may slow, making range-bound, box-range movements more likely, with pullback opportunities and lower cost-effectiveness of chasing highs.**付裕 · prediction](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d246-d51b-7cb4-8ebf-5a853b989018) [**The credit strategist team led by Ning Luo said many bond issuers can absorb higher debt costs, but sovereign governments with high deficits and large shares of short-term debt, as well as highly leveraged companies, will face the greatest pressure.**信贷策略师团队 · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1cbdc-3ad2-7819-83ef-bf1901143d5f) [**French bond prices have already fully priced in some pessimistic scenarios and offer a value investing opportunity.**穆迪 · prediction](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1cbce-90dc-726f-af71-7dc045fd3386) [**Bond yields fell.**analisisbankinter · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1cc39-3c0d-745b-b807-8e7cba6c9533) [**Term Money, Triparty Repo, Market Repo and Repo in Corporate Bond in the term segment all recorded zero volume.**bank\_nbfc\_fintech · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1cc72-01d6-7a63-a334-cf71ccaa3e61) [**As of November 9, a batch of medium- and long-term pure bond funds, including 民生加银瑞夏一年定开债 and 中信保诚稳悦, have seen year-to-date returns rise above 10%, even exceeding many equity funds.**financial\_express · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d246-d4ff-7bf1-9777-c843cd1edc13) ## **More claims by 付裕** [**Overall, the long-term trend of the bond market is relatively strong, but the pace of phased increases may slow, making range-bound, box-range movements more likely, with pullback opportunities and lower cost-effectiveness of chasing highs.**prediction](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d246-d51b-7cb4-8ebf-5a853b989018) [**The fund's return sources include local government bond coupon income, duration trading in interest rate bonds, leverage carry contribution, and other yield curve opportunity trades.**statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1d246-d50d-7bb3-96db-b5d2c5d0df6c) [All claims by 付裕](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims?claimant_id=01a1d246-d4f6-77aa-ad18-725019fb777e) [All claims](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@id":"https://dgw.tmarket.io/#website","@type":"WebSite","description":"Decisions, events and falsifiable forecasts from 3,000+ Telegram channels — every claim cited. 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