statement
From a valuation and crowding trading perspective, long-end bond yields are already at historical lows and duration is crowded, meaning the risk-reward ratio has declined; once there is a negative disturbance, volatility will significantly amplify.
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从估值与拥挤度交易角度看，长端债券收益率已经处于历史低位、久期拥挤，意味着赔率下降，一旦利空扰动，波动会显著放大。
Related claims
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Overall, the long-term trend of the bond market is relatively strong, but the pace of phased increases may slow, making range-bound, box-range movements more likely, with pullback opportunities and lower cost-effectiveness of chasing highs.predictionThe fund's return sources include local government bond coupon income, duration trading in interest rate bonds, leverage carry contribution, and other yield curve opportunity trades.statement
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