prediction
In the author's view, inflation will run at 6-7% (SAAR) for Q4, against the CBR forecast of 7.5-9.5% (SAAR).
A prediction by truecon. Statements are as reported by the cited publishers — not verified by DecisionGateway.
В моей картине мира пока идем на 6-7% (SAAR) по итогам 4 квартала против прогноза ЦБ 7.5-9.5% (SAAR).
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According to the updated forecast, inflation will be 7.1–7.6% in 2026 and will return to 4% in 2027.Резюме обсуждения ключевой ставки · predictionInflation is likely to rise slightly above 4% by the end of the year.Philip Lane · predictionInflation expectations declined slightly but remain high: 4.3% for one year and 3.4% for five years; overall, everything points to the Fed having to raise rates in December.truecon · predictionInflation is forecast at around 7 percent at the end of 2026 and at the 5 percent target level at the end of 2027.Markaziy bank · predictionThe Central Bank expects inflation to reach about 7% by the end of the year, taking into account planned increases in some regulated prices, so annual inflation is likely to move towards that level by December.Central Bank · predictionUS inflation is expected to repeat at +3.7%.el mercado · prediction
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Inflation expectations declined slightly but remain high: 4.3% for one year and 3.4% for five years; overall, everything points to the Fed having to raise rates in December.predictionThe financial conditions index is at extremely comfortable levels, the financial stress index likewise, and the key rate can hardly be characterized as tight.statementHourly wage growth accelerated slightly to 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y; weekly jobless claims were only 189 thousand, and the number of Americans on benefits was about 1.7 million — lows since 2023.statementThe number of open vacancies rose to 7.5 million, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed rose to 1.06.statementThe unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 59.3% — all indicators improved by 0.1 percentage points over the month.statement
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