Claims
What was said, typed and attributed. Statements as reported by the cited publishers — not verified by DecisionGateway.
Follow via RSS — the 30 newest claims in any reader, no account needed.
Claims by
predictionInflation expectations declined slightly but remain high: 4.3% for one year and 3.4% for five years; overall, everything points to the Fed having to raise rates in December.trueconstatementThe financial conditions index is at extremely comfortable levels, the financial stress index likewise, and the key rate can hardly be characterized as tight.trueconstatementHourly wage growth accelerated slightly to 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y; weekly jobless claims were only 189 thousand, and the number of Americans on benefits was about 1.7 million — lows since 2023.trueconstatementThe number of open vacancies rose to 7.5 million, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed rose to 1.06.trueconstatementThe unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 59.3% — all indicators improved by 0.1 percentage points over the month.trueconstatementOver the last six months the economy created an average of 88 thousand jobs per month, which is not that much.trueconstatementData for previous months was revised upward by 84 thousand.trueconstatementUS job growth accelerated in October, adding 165 thousand jobs, of which 159 thousand were in the private sector.trueconstatementOil and gas revenues in October turned out somewhat below expectations of ₽971 billion, which is due to large compensations under the damper and reverse excise tax (₽554.6 billion).trueconpredictionRecently the inflow of revenue has become more significant than tax payments themselves, but companies will still have to pay less, so there may be a slight negative effect on the exchange rate; the systemic range of 80-85 rubles per dollar remains relevant.trueconpredictionRevenue from oil prices will already come at high prices, so companies will have something to sell to pay taxes.trueconstatementThe average rate over the last 5 years was <2.5%, the real rate about -1.8%, which is far below estimates of the neutral real rate (R*), which in the eurozone are around 0-0.25% — in the dominant view policy remained extremely loose.trueconstatementAverage inflation in the eurozone over the last 5 years was 4.3%, and since K. Lagarde's arrival 3.5%, which is significantly above the 2% target; at its peak annual inflation reached 10.6%.trueconpredictionAt the ECB, by May there will be changes in key positions: chief economist (currently Philip Lane) and head of the markets department (Isabel Schnabel), i.e. a personnel deal on key positions is ahead.trueconallegationIn essence this is a departure for political reasons.trueconstatementFrance historically has dominant positions in influencing the choice of the ECB head, so a change of power there may have a strong influence on the appointment of the future head of the central bank.trueconstatementThe dominant reason for the slightly earlier departure (official term 31 October 2027) is the elections in France in the spring, so as to manage to appoint a new ECB head before the elections.trueconstatementThe head of the ECB, K. Lagarde, is leaving in February of next year, on 7 February 2027.trueconstatementOverall the situation is not changing much; local flights of subsidized mortgages do not change the general trend. Credit activity of the population has recovered but remains fairly restrained.trueconstatementAuto loans accelerated slightly — issuance of ₽190.7 billion (+6.4% m/m and -10.7% y/y); total issuance volumes remain at fairly high levels, and some acceleration before the increase in the recycling fee can most likely be seen, but overall, seasonally adjusted, everything has been flat here over the last 3 quarters.truecon
20 of 62