predictionSaid on 2026-11-02
At the ECB, by May there will be changes in key positions: chief economist (currently Philip Lane) and head of the markets department (Isabel Schnabel), i.e. a personnel deal on key positions is ahead.
A prediction by truecon, said on 2026-11-02. Statements are as reported by the cited publishers — not verified by DecisionGateway.
Также в ЕЦБ к маю будут изменения на ключевых позициях главного экономиста (сейчас Филип Лейн) и главы отдела рынков (Изабель Шнабель), т.е. предстоит кадровая сделка по ключевым позициям.
Discussion
Related claims
The head of the ECB, K. Lagarde, is leaving in February of next year, on 7 February 2027.truecon · statementFrance historically has dominant positions in influencing the choice of the ECB head, so a change of power there may have a strong influence on the appointment of the future head of the central bank.truecon · statementThe dominant reason for the slightly earlier departure (official term 31 October 2027) is the elections in France in the spring, so as to manage to appoint a new ECB head before the elections.truecon · statementOne of the key problems is approving a successor to the post of head of the European Central Bank.Портал Rapporteur · statementEABR expects the key rate to stay at 14% until February–March 2027.ЕАБР · predictionThe ECB chief economist supports raising interest rates in December if data do not change.dubaotiente · statement
More claims by truecon
Inflation expectations declined slightly but remain high: 4.3% for one year and 3.4% for five years; overall, everything points to the Fed having to raise rates in December.predictionThe financial conditions index is at extremely comfortable levels, the financial stress index likewise, and the key rate can hardly be characterized as tight.statementHourly wage growth accelerated slightly to 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y; weekly jobless claims were only 189 thousand, and the number of Americans on benefits was about 1.7 million — lows since 2023.statementThe number of open vacancies rose to 7.5 million, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed rose to 1.06.statementThe unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 59.3% — all indicators improved by 0.1 percentage points over the month.statement
All claims by truecon