Will Trump and Xi hold a bilateral meeting in Shenzhen during APEC (18–19 November 2026) even if no trilateral with Putin takes place?

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

1. 13 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC38%+5 pp

   new evidence: Chinese MFA 13 Nov programme lists only bilateral meetings for Xi; Kremlin names a planned Putin-Trump bilateral

   evidence 01a1d2a3

2. 12 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC33%−12 pp

   new evidence: Kremlin now describes the three-way as upcoming and being organized by Beijing, so bilateral-only is less likely

   evidence 01a1d0ed

3. 12 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC45%−3 pp

   new evidence: Chinese MFA now names the three-way subject and promises timely release; Ryabkov says Beijing coordinating — trilateral presumption up, bilateral-only down

   evidence 01a1d07d

4. 12 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC48%−5 pp

   new evidence: Russian MFA (Ryabkov) now describes the three-way format itself as in preparation, not only a Putin-Trump bilateral

   evidence 01a1cfa2

5. 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC53%−3 pp

   new evidence: trilateral framing firmed slightly (AFP 12 Nov, Chinese MFA 12 Nov), so bilateral-only branch shaded down; bilateral track itself unchanged

   evidence 01a1cf34

6. 12 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC56%−2 pp

   new evidence: State Dept readout names a potential trilateral leaders meeting with Russia (small negative for bilateral-only); Trump-Xi bilateral itself firmed by Rubio-Wang call

   evidence 01a1cd7d

7. 11 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC58%+13 pp

   new evidence: SCMP 17:07Z says Trump is scheduled to meet Xi in Shenzhen 18-19 Nov, Rubio-Wang call finalising that bilateral; no trilateral confirmation

   evidence 01a1cbc6

8. 11 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC45%+2 pp

   new evidence: Bessent joins Trump in Shenzhen for the Trump-Xi meeting, with a fourth Trump-Xi meeting planned in Miami; Philippine DFA confirms Trump attends ASEAN-US summit 17 Nov then travels to Shenzhen

   evidence 01a1c9a0

9. 11 Nov 2026, 06:13 UTC43%±0 pp

   new evidence: Kyodo/Mainichi confirms Putin expected in Shenzhen and Trump-Xi third bilateral expected; bilateral framing unchanged, p held

   evidence 01a1c93e

10. 11 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC43%+3 pp

    new evidence: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says he will travel to Shenzhen for "a meeting between Trump and Xi", calling it Trump's third Xi meeting this year — official US framing is bilateral

    evidence 01a1c856

11. 11 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC40%−2 pp

    new evidence on parent: Beijing confirms it is discussing a three-leader meeting, so the bilateral-only branch gives up a little probability (0.42 -> 0.40); residual no-meeting ~0.13

    evidence 01a1c7e8

12. 10 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC42%−8 pp

    Re-priced for coherence with parent after Rubio's 10 Nov statement: trilateral up to 0.45, so bilateral-only falls to 0.42; residual (no Trump–Xi meeting at all) ~0.13. SCMP still reports the substantive Trump–Xi encounter expected at the G20 in Miami in December, which keeps bilateral-only the modal branch.

    evidence 01a1c630

13. 10 Nov 2026, 15:15 UTC50%+10 pp

    New evidence: SCMP 2026-11-10T14:00Z reports Trump and Xi are "set to meet again at next week's Apec summit" (third bilateral this year), while the trilateral format is stuck in a US-China impasse (WSJ/Bloomberg 2026-11-10). Bilateral-only path is now the modal outcome; raised from 0.40.

    evidence 01a1c607

14. 10 Nov 2026, 15:07 UTC40%—

    Probability updated.