Will Grand Theft Auto VI launch on 19 November 2026 as scheduled, without a third delay?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 00:01 UTC ·+1 pts
Resolves YES if
YES if the game is commercially released (digital unlock and/or physical code-in-box sale) on 19 November 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. NO if Rockstar/Take-Two announce a further delay before that date, or the launch does not occur on 19 November 2026.
Probability history
5 recorded points
now 98% · +1 pts
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 98%+1 pp
New evidence: Rockstar support page confirms midnight-local-time release on 19 Nov 2026 in all regions for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S; pre-loads open since 10 Nov and code-in-box physical copies shipped 12 Nov. No delay signal in any 12-13 Nov coverage.
evidence 01a1d75b
- 97%±0 pp
new evidence confirms 19 Nov launch (Independent 13 Nov, boxed copies shipped 12 Nov); held
evidence 01a1d536
- 97%+1 pp
New evidence: Rockstar's own 12 Nov "one week away" post, pre-load live since 10 Nov, game gone gold per Take-Two CEO on 9 Nov earnings call; no delay announced. Nudged up from 0.96.
evidence 01a1d310
- 96%+1 pp
new evidence: T-7 days, gone gold confirmed at 9 Nov Q2 FY2027 call, preload live since 10 Nov, record pre-orders, no date change on storefronts
evidence 01a1d1fc
- 95%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Rockstar/Take-Two announce a third delay of GTA VI before 19 November 2026, pushing the launch past that date?
YES if, on or before 19 November 2026, Rockstar Games or Take-Two publicly announce a new release date later than 19 November 2026 (via Rockstar channels, Take-Two IR release, or a change to the official store listings).
3%probability
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Rockstar/Take-Two announce a third delay of GTA VI before 19 November 2026, pushing the launch past that date?
YES if, on or before 19 November 2026, Rockstar Games or Take-Two publicly announce a new release date later than 19 November 2026 (via Rockstar channels, Take-Two IR release, or a change to the official store listings).
3%probability