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statementSeasonally adjusted, cash loan indicators point to gradual growth in lending, but without much acceleration.trueconstatementCash loan issuance is stable at ₽510.4 billion (-1.2% m/m and +50% y/y); the growth rate has stabilized around ~₽0.5 trillion per month.trueconstatementMarket mortgage remained at decent levels of about ₽190 billion per month, gradually narrowing the gap between the secondary and primary markets, though drivers here are expectations of a rate cut, elevated inflation and relatively low prices (relative to the primary market).trueconstatementMortgage issuance fell sharply to ₽308.8 billion (-49.2% m/m and -36.2% y/y); there was a strong surge before the tightening of subsidized mortgage terms, but in October everything went dark.trueconstatementIn the US market there was a sharp crash: Nasdaq -6%, S&P -4%, starting with AI and Big Tech stocks, followed by margin calls, especially since margin positions and leverage were at maximums.trueconstatementGas prices in Europe reached $1200 per thousand cubic meters and then corrected to about $1050 on hopes that the Middle East situation would normalize, but gas withdrawal from storage has already begun.trueconstatementThe Dated Brent–Urals tax price spread (FOB before logistics) stabilized at $23–23.5 per barrel, with ESPO premiums offsetting Urals discounts.trueconstatementThe tax price of Urals fell to $82.5 per barrel by November 3, could have dropped to about $75 after the US elections, and averaged $101.5 per barrel in October.trueconstatementOn hopes of normalization with Iran, oil prices corrected to about $95–100 per barrel of Dated Brent, and by expiry the futures converged with spot.trueconallegationOil supplies from the Middle East fell sharply in October after September's drop due to attacks on tankers and pipelines.trueconstatementInflation in October remained low at 0.0% m/m (sa) and +0.7% y/y; fuel price growth (20% y/y) and smartphones (+16.1% y/y) were offset by falling food prices.trueconallegationRecord Chinese imports from Russia are of course driven by substantially higher oil prices in October.trueconstatementOver 10 months, record trade turnover between Russia and China was $242.5 billion (+32.1% y/y), with $109.3 billion China's exports to Russia and $133.2 billion China's imports from Russia.trueconstatementChina's exports to Russia in October adjusted from $13.4 billion to $11.2 billion, while imports rose from $15.7 billion to $16.7 billion.trueconstatementChina's oil imports rose in October to 9.8 mb/d (+0.7 mb/d versus August) but remain below last year's level by 1.65 mb/d.trueconstatementOver the last 12 months China's foreign trade balance was +$1.28 trillion.trueconstatementChina's trade balance in September was +$05 billion, with the surplus somewhat narrowing due to faster import growth amid high oil prices.trueconallegationRestrictions imposed by Trump so far only lead to growth in China's foreign trade.trueconpredictionIn the author's view, inflation will run at 6-7% (SAAR) for Q4, against the CBR forecast of 7.5-9.5% (SAAR).trueconpredictionDisinflation in gasoline is expected (-2% w/w) as autumn consumption falls substantially, which by itself balances the market even with the retirement of refining capacity; the question is the scale of the correction.truecon
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